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Will Trump Make Concessions Over Hormuz?
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia /Economy & Trade

Will Trump Make Concessions Over Hormuz?

From Asharq Al-Awsat · () English

Translated from English, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

Analysis Named sources Context piece
  • President Donald Trump may need to compromise to achieve a deal with Iran that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil transit route.
  • The Trump administration has resisted any deal that would grant Iran significant control over the strait, while Iran insists on maintaining some measure of control.
  • Experts are divided on whether Trump's administration will compromise, citing economic pressures and upcoming midterm elections as potential motivators, despite Trump's public statements about US military strength.

President Donald Trump faces a potential challenge in negotiating a deal with Iran to reopen the economically crucial Strait of Hormuz, a scenario that may require him to compromise – an action described as out of character for the Republican president. The administration's stance has been firm against any arrangement that solidifies Iran's control over the waterway, particularly concerning Tehran charging fees.

He divides the world into winners and losers, and this would make him a loser.

— Eliot CohenEliot Cohen, former counselor of the State Department, commented on President Trump's potential difficulty in compromising.

However, Iran maintains its demand for some level of control, stating the strait will not revert to its pre-war status as an open international waterway. Despite extensive US military actions, Iran retains the capability to threaten commercial shipping through drone and missile attacks, giving it leverage over the strait, through which approximately 20% of the world's oil normally flows.

And the image of being a loser, I think, would be intolerable for him.

— Eliot CohenEliot Cohen elaborated on the potential psychological impact of compromise on President Trump.

Analysts like Eliot Cohen, a former State Department counselor, suggest that compromising would be difficult for Trump, who prefers to be seen as a "winner." He believes the image of losing ground to Iran would be intolerable for the president, even with elevated gasoline prices and potential challenges for Republicans in the upcoming midterm elections.

There will be a lot of spin both ways, but my guess is that the president has tipped his hand as to the urgency for him of resolving the crisis.

— David SchenkerDavid Schenker, a former State Department official, suggested economic pressure might lead Trump to compromise.

Conversely, David Schenker, a former Trump administration State Department official, posits that increasing economic pressure might compel Trump to compromise. Schenker, now with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, believes the urgency of resolving the crisis could lead Trump to make concessions, despite the profound implications for global trade. Trump himself has publicly asserted the US military possesses "massive amounts" of weapons and is manufacturing more, while threatening punishment for alleged information "leakers."

This is a concession he may very well be willing to make.

— David SchenkerDavid Schenker speculated on President Trump's potential willingness to concede on the Strait of Hormuz issue.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by Asharq Al-Awsat in English. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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