Winter and Smotrich Cross Electoral Threshold as Likud and Ben-Gvir Lose Ground in Kan Poll

Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party and Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party would enter the Knesset under a new Kan poll, gaining ground as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud and Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit decline.

Likud stands at 21 projected seats, one fewer than in Kan’s previous survey and three fewer than at the beginning of the month. Otzma Yehudit falls to seven seats. The poll also gives the reestablished Joint List enough support to overtake Otzma Yehudit in projected representation.

The opposition bloc slips from 57 seats to 55, while the coalition bloc edges up from 51 to 52. Arab parties gain projected representation, reaching 13 seats. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party remains at 24 seats, and Naftali Bennett’s Together party remains at 21. Yair Golan’s Democrats and Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beytenu each lose one seat.

Netanyahu retains a narrow advantage over Bennett on suitability to serve as prime minister, with 37% choosing Netanyahu and 36% choosing Bennett. Eisenkot leads Netanyahu by 40% to 37% on the same question.

The poll also highlights the risks of right-wing mergers. A Smotrich-Ben-Gvir alliance would draw 10 seats, compared with 12 if they ran separately, while Winter’s party would rise to five. A Smotrich alliance with Moshe Feiglin would lift Religious Zionism to seven seats, but push Winter’s party below the threshold. Benny Gantz, Gilad Erdan, and Matan Kahana’s parties fail to cross the threshold in every scenario tested.