With China’s Xi in North Korea, Kim to Project Confidence, Defiance

Chinese President Xi Jinping's arrival in Pyongyang marks his first visit to North Korea in seven years, signaling Beijing's effort to reassert influence over its neighbor. The summit takes place as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un appears to be in a position of strength, fortified by a firm alliance with Russia, a developed nuclear arsenal, and minimal engagement with Washington. For Xi, the visit is a strategic move to draw Pyongyang back into China's sphere of influence. Since Xi's last visit in 2019, Kim has deepened military and trade ties with Moscow, continued nuclear development in defiance of UN sanctions, and implemented strict border controls. North Korea has recently showcased its military capabilities, announcing plans for a 10,000-ton naval destroyer and reaffirming its status as a nuclear-armed state. Andrew Gilholm, an analyst at Control Risks, described Xi's visit as "a big deal and the culmination of a good couple of 'comeback' years for Kim." While past relations have seen strains, particularly over Pyongyang's nuclear program, Beijing has publicly opposed North Korea's nuclear tests. North Korea, in turn, has been cautious about over-reliance on China, with Russia's support potentially offering a strategic balance. John Delury, a senior fellow at the Asia Society, noted that North Korea is likely benefiting economically from its military support to Russia, which may embolden it to increase trade and investment with China. A regional diplomat indicated that the summit's outcomes will likely center on economic cooperation, as North Korea embarks on a five-year development plan that includes expanding tourism and housing construction. The country, which shut its borders in early 2020 due to strict COVID-19 controls, is seeking to revive tourism, a modest but crucial source of hard currency, with Chinese tourists historically forming the backbone of this industry.

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Having Xi visit Pyongyang is a big deal and the culmination of a good couple of 'comeback' years for Kim.