World Cup 2026: Spain leads predictions

As the 2026 World Cup approaches, predictions are emerging, with Goldman Sachs identifying Spain as the frontrunner. The investment banking group's statistical model gives Spain a 26% chance of winning the tournament, followed by France at 19% and Argentina at 14%.

The model forecasts Spain reaching the final and ultimately lifting the trophy. This prediction is based on Spain's recent strong performance, the quality of its squad, and its high Elo rating, a statistical measure of team strength. Spain's Elo score is reportedly higher than that of fellow contenders Argentina and France. Historically, World Cups have alternated between European and South American champions, a trend that favors Spain following Argentina's victory in 2022.

Goldman Sachs' simulations suggest a final match between Spain and Argentina. To reach this stage, Spain is predicted to navigate a group including Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and Cape Verde, and then defeat Austria, Colombia, and Turkey in the knockout rounds. Argentina, meanwhile, is expected to top its group against Algeria, Austria, and Jordan, and then eliminate Uruguay, the United States, and Portugal before the final.

France and Brazil are also projected to be among the top four teams. France is expected to reach the semifinals by overcoming Paraguay, Germany, and the Netherlands. Brazil's path to the semifinals involves defeating Japan, Norway, and England. The simulation predicts France will secure third place by defeating Brazil in their playoff match.