'World in danger zone': UN says El Nino likely to intensify, may become strongest ever recorded

The world is entering what the United Nations describes as a “danger zone of extreme weather”, as El Niño threatens to become the strongest event recorded since modern monitoring began four decades ago.

The World Meteorological Organisation said on Thursday that the naturally occurring climate pattern will intensify into a “very strong” event in the coming months and is almost certain to continue through February. El Niño warms surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, disrupting winds, air pressure and rainfall patterns across the world.

“If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began, so literally off the charts we have used for the past four decades,” WMO chief Celeste Saulo told reporters in Geneva. The organisation said El Niño will peak toward the end of this year, while its effects on global climate could continue well into 2027.

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If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began, so literally off the charts we have used for the past four decades.

The delayed impact reflects the way oceans release heat. Warm water transfers energy into the atmosphere more slowly, pushing global temperatures higher in the following year. The powerful 2023-24 El Niño helped make 2024 the warmest year on record, and Saulo said “we should not be surprised if this record is broken”.

The WMO warned that the intensifying event could bring major shifts in rainfall and temperature patterns, alongside increased risks of flooding, drought and extreme heat. El Niño itself is a natural phenomenon and is not caused by climate change, although scientists expect it to worsen the effects of human-driven warming.

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we should not be surprised if this record is broken