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🇮🇱 Israel /Conflict & Security

You can’t topple Iran without fighting the IRGC

From Jerusalem Post · (17h ago) English

Translated from English, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

TLDR

  • The US and Israel may weaken Iran's regime but cannot topple it due to the resilience of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which acts as a parallel state controlling security, economy, and foreign policy.
  • The IRGC's structure, economic patronage network, and control over coercive tools like the Basij militia enable it to withstand shocks, suppress dissent, and maintain regime survival.
  • A potential outcome is an "IRGC state" where military-security institutions dominate, leading to increased authoritarianism domestically and greater threats abroad, such as disruptions to shipping and asymmetric warfare.

The recent ceasefire may have paused the conflict, but it is crucial to understand that the United States and Israel's efforts to destabilize Iran will not succeed in toppling the regime. The true power lies with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a formidable entity that functions as a state within a state.

The US and Israel may damage the regime but not topple it.

— SETH D. KAPLANAuthor's statement on the limited impact of US and Israeli actions against the Iranian regime.

The IRGC's resilience stems from its multifaceted nature. It is not merely a military force but a deeply entrenched organization that controls key economic sectors, directs foreign policy through regional networks, and maintains internal security. Its doctrine prioritizes regime survival, internal control, and endurance, making it adept at weathering external pressures and internal dissent.

The IRGC is not just a military force. It is a parallel state.

— SETH D. KAPLANAuthor's description of the IRGC's extensive influence beyond military operations.

Western powers may underestimate the IRGC's ability to adapt and endure. Its decentralized "mosaic defense" model ensures that even significant losses do not lead to collapse. Furthermore, its extensive patronage network fosters loyalty among elites and citizens alike, creating a vested interest in the regime's survival. This intricate web of economic and social ties, combined with its control over coercive apparatuses like the Basij militia, makes the IRGC an almost unshakeable pillar of the Iranian state.

Its doctrine prioritizes internal control, counter-coup capability, and endurance.

— SETH D. KAPLANAuthor's explanation of the IRGC's strategic focus.

Consequently, the likely outcome of continued pressure is not regime change but the consolidation of an "IRGC state." This would mean a more authoritarian Iran domestically, relying heavily on repression, and a more aggressive posture internationally. The world should prepare for a more dangerous Iran, one that threatens regional stability and global commerce, rather than a weakened or democratized nation.

Decapitation does not lead to collapse.

— SETH D. KAPLANAuthor's assessment of the IRGC's structural resilience.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by Jerusalem Post in English. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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