1.5-Degree Warming Limit to Be Breached by 2026, Austrian Researchers Predict

A team of climate scientists from the University of Graz and the Wegener Center has issued a stark warning: global warming is set to surpass the critical 1.5-degree Celsius threshold sooner than anticipated. Their latest projections indicate a global temperature rise of 1.62 degrees Celsius this year, escalating to 1.71 degrees Celsius by 2027, relative to pre-industrial levels.

The researchers' analysis, based on a new reference dataset of global surface air temperature since 1850, reveals an accelerated warming trend since 1980 with over 99 percent statistical certainty. This trend is primarily driven by greenhouse gas emissions. The findings suggest that even the long-term average temperature, crucial for the Paris Agreement's 1.5-degree goal, will likely exceed this limit by 2026. By 2032, the 20-year average is projected to reach 1.7 degrees Celsius, surpassing the Paris Agreement's aim of staying "well below 2 degrees."

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We now understand the heat drive from human-caused greenhouse gas emissions in conjunction with natural fluctuations like El Niño so well that we could reliably make the forecast.

Lead geophysicist Gottfried Kirchengast explained that the accuracy of these predictions is bolstered by a significantly improved understanding of the interplay between human-caused greenhouse gas emissions and natural climate variations like El Niño. "We now understand the heat drive from human-caused greenhouse gas emissions in conjunction with natural fluctuations like El Niño so well that we could reliably make the forecast," Kirchengast stated. The team also incorporated observational data and seasonal forecasts into their calculations.

Kirchengast pointed to a lack of ambition in climate protection as the root cause of this accelerating warming. "Avoidable climate hazards like the current extreme heatwave in Europe are the direct consequence," he asserted. His team has also developed a new method for calculating extreme weather event risks, which has demonstrated the influence of global warming on current heatwaves.

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Avoidable climate hazards like the current extreme heatwave in Europe are the direct consequence.