2027 permutations: ‘Tinubu vulnerable in S/S, competitive in N/C, N/E; Atiku has no leg in South; Obi’s 2023 momentum lost’

As Nigeria's political landscape shifts ahead of the next general elections, Director of Research at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), Prof. Femi Otubanjo, offers an analysis of emerging permutations and alliances. Otubanjo suggests that President Bola Tinubu, while potentially vulnerable in the South-South geopolitical zone, remains competitive in the North-Central and North-East regions. In contrast, the analysis indicates that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar "has no leg in the South," implying a significant lack of support in the southern part of the country. Furthermore, the momentum Peter Obi, the Labour Party's candidate in the last election, enjoyed in 2023 appears to have dissipated. The NIIA's research director also commented on the political maneuvering of figures like Nyesom Wike, suggesting his actions may have negatively impacted the president's standing. The ongoing political realignments are setting the stage for potentially dynamic electoral contests, with current assessments pointing to a complex and shifting terrain for the major political players.

“

Wike has shot president in the foot