80% chance of El Niño developing in June-August, says UN weather agency

The world faces an 80% probability of El Niño developing between June and August, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This natural climate phenomenon, characterized by warming surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, is expected to significantly alter global weather patterns.

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Fuelled by unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific, El Niño conditions are developing and are set to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns.

Forecasts from the WMO's global network indicate a "pronounced shift" toward El Niño conditions. The United Nations' weather agency stated that the likelihood of El Niño developing by November is "near or above 90%," with most models suggesting it will be "at least moderate - and possibly strong."

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indicate a pronounced shift toward El Niño conditions, with probabilities reaching 80% for June-August

"Fuelled by unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific, El Niño conditions are developing and are set to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns," the WMO said. The agency warned that even a moderate El Niño can exacerbate drought, heavy rainfall, and increase the risk of heatwaves on land and in the ocean. This comes as 2023 was the second-hottest year on record and 2024 is on track to be the all-time high.

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exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean

UN chief Antonio Guterres urged global action, stating, "El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world." He emphasized the need to end fossil fuel addiction and accelerate the shift to renewables to mitigate the amplified impacts.

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The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed.