95% Chance of a ‘Super’ El Niño, Northern and Southern Vietnam Face Rain Shortages in September

A strong El Niño is expected to bring below-average rainfall to northern and southern Vietnam in September, while the country remains at risk of short, intense bouts of extreme weather.

Vietnam’s National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific were about 1.8 degrees Celsius above average during the final week of August. It forecast a 95% probability that El Niño would remain strong to very strong in the final months of 2026, with the pattern potentially lasting into the first half of 2027.

The South China Sea could see two to three storms and tropical depressions in September, including the recent storm No. 5. One or two of those systems could affect Vietnam’s mainland. Average temperatures nationwide are expected to run 0.5 to 1 degree Celsius above normal.

Widespread heat in the north and central regions at the start of September should gradually weaken and become less prolonged. Central Vietnam, particularly the coastal South Central Coast, could still face several widespread heatwaves that affect daily life and production.

Rainfall patterns are expected to shift sharply from August. Northern Vietnam and the area from Thanh Hoa to Quang Tri received totals 50% to 100% above the long-term average in August, but September rainfall there could fall 20% to 40% below normal. The forecast center warned that even with a seasonal deficit, localized heavy rain could bring thunderstorms, tornadoes, lightning, hail and strong gusts.

Rainfall in the Central Highlands could exceed the long-term average by 10% to 20%, while southern Vietnam could see a 5% to 15% shortfall. Other areas are expected to record rainfall close to normal.