A new Silicon Valley emerges in the Middle East: How much are the billions in the deal and for whom?

A leaked 14-point memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran hints at a significant diplomatic shift, with analysts suggesting Tehran could emerge with an enhanced strategic standing. While neither Washington nor Tehran has officially confirmed the document, Western media outlets like The Wall Street Journal and Axios have corroborated key aspects of the draft agreement, reportedly set for formal signing in Switzerland.

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Tehran manages to emerge from the recent period of intense military conflict with its strategic position significantly strengthened, taking advantage of the balances reflected in the text.

The most immediate impact of the proposed deal appears to be economic. The draft outlines the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports and the suspension of sanctions related to oil exports and related services. Iranian sources estimate the country could gain up to $10 billion in revenue within the first 60 days of the agreement's implementation.

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Iran could earn up to ten billion dollars within an initial period of just sixty days.

However, significant concerns persist regarding the allocation of these newly accessible funds. Senior officials within Iran's Revolutionary Guard have stated that the released capital will not be excluded from the defense budget. This suggests Tehran intends to prioritize the reconstruction and upgrade of its ballistic missile and drone programs, alongside continued financial support for its regional allies.

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The top officials of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard have already made it clear that the unfrozen funds will not be excluded from the defense budget.

The nuclear issue remains a complex point for future negotiations, scheduled for a 60-day period with a possible extension. The U.S. leadership has emphasized that the final release of frozen Iranian assets worldwide hinges on verifiable steps toward eliminating its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. The memorandum also reportedly references a massive $300 billion economic development and reconstruction plan, to be financed by the U.S. and regional partners, though the U.S. presidency has denied direct funding. Analysts remain skeptical about Iran's willingness to make substantial concessions on its uranium enrichment rights.

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The U.S. side, through statements from its leadership, makes it clear that the final release of frozen Iranian assets worldwide will depend exclusively on verifiable steps to eliminate the stockpile of highly enriched uranium.