A Trump-Kim Summit May Happen. A Deal Is Another Matter

Donald Trump’s apparent interest in his past negotiations with Kim Jong-un is welcome news, but a summit would be far easier to arrange than a durable agreement. That is the central distinction facing any attempt to revive dialogue between Washington and Pyongyang.

Seven years have passed since talks collapsed at Trump and Kim’s second summit in Hanoi in February 2019. Since then, North Korea’s nuclear capabilities have grown substantially, while the relationship among Pyongyang, Beijing and Moscow has become a central element of Northeast Asia’s order. Trump’s second term has also made the international environment less predictable.

The accumulated distrust leaves no obvious starting point for negotiations. The impasse has lasted too long, and Russia’s war with Ukraine has made the negotiating environment more difficult. Reviving the “dying embers” of dialogue will not be easy, even if North Korea agrees to return to talks with the United States.

The goals and process of negotiations could change as relations develop. Cooperation between the United States and China should not automatically be treated as the main obstacle, the article argues. Despite their differences over the regional order, Beijing and Washington share an interest in stability.

The more serious problem may lie inside the Trump administration. Political will matters in a conflict defined by deep distrust, but negotiations also require a structured system to coordinate, manage and sustain talks over time. A negotiated statement would require repeated leadership-level political commitments and technical coordination among working-level officials. The administration’s handling of dialogue with Iran and trade negotiations with Canada, as well as the sudden suspension of joint military exercises, is presented as evidence that Washington lacks a reliable internal system for coordinating diplomacy.