AfD poised for victory, but governing Saxony-Anhalt is far from assured

The Alternative for Germany is heading toward a convincing win in Saxony-Anhalt, but victory at the polls may not translate into power. The anti-immigration party is not expected to win an absolute majority, while most other parties have ruled out joining it in a coalition.

That leaves the far-right party facing a familiar barrier: it may become the strongest force without being able to govern. Yet a high vote share would still strengthen AfD and put additional pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The party has drawn particular support in the former communist East Germany, including Saxony-Anhalt, as Merz's government struggles with a weakening economy.

Taking control of the state government would mark AfD's biggest success in its 13-year history and a major political shock for Germany. It would be the first time since World War II that a far-right party governed one of Germany's 16 states.

The powers at stake are substantial. A state government would give AfD influence over health care, education, immigration and security policy, as well as control of the police and security services in Saxony-Anhalt. That could raise questions about the sharing of sensitive information with Berlin and other states, particularly because the domestic intelligence service has classified AfD groups as far-right in five German states, including Saxony-Anhalt.

The state, home to 2.1 million people and roughly comparable in size to Slovenia, has been governed by Merz's center-right Christian Democratic Union since 2002. In 2021, CDU won 37.1% of the vote and formed a coalition with the Social Democrats and the liberal Free Democratic Party. Merz said CDU would do everything it could during the final week of campaigning to prevent an AfD government, acknowledging that his party faced difficult conditions there.

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difficult conditions