After Hormuz, Iran turns to Red Sea gateway as new pressure point

Iran is escalating its pressure tactics by potentially leveraging its Houthi allies in Yemen to disrupt shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a critical gateway to the Red Sea. This strategic move, analysts suggest, aims to widen the conflict beyond the Strait of Hormuz and increase pressure on Washington by threatening global trade and energy supplies. Iran has already demonstrated its capacity to disrupt traffic through Hormuz, and the Bab el-Mandeb represents another vital chokepoint. A senior Yemeni official warned that the country's armed forces are prepared to close the strait if Saudi Arabia continues its attacks on Yemen, a move that could reportedly send oil prices soaring to $200 a barrel. Mohammed al-Farah, a member of the Houthi political bureau, accused Washington of inciting Saudi strikes on Yemen. Analysts view Bab el-Mandeb as Iran's "last major reserve" in its strategic arsenal, warning of a slow but relentless "mission creep" where both sides raise the stakes without direct confrontation. The expanding conflict threatens global trade and energy supplies, potentially pushing Washington and Tehran back to negotiations before these crucial maritime passages become a primary battleground. The Houthis have already proven their ability to disrupt commerce in the Red Sea, launching attacks on vessels linked to Israel following the Gaza war's eruption. These actions forced major shipping companies to reroute, increasing transport costs and prompting U.S. and British airstrikes, as well as a multinational naval mission to protect shipping.

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the issue is, how do you change the Iranian calculus to the point where they’re ready, again, to talk, but not just to talk, but actually to work out an arrangement that is … acceptable.