AI Component Trade Offsets Middle East Conflict Impact on Global Trade Growth

Global merchandise trade experienced a notable increase of 1.9% in the first quarter of 2026, surpassing initial forecasts, the World Trade Organization (WTO) reported. This growth was significantly bolstered by the robust trade of electronic components associated with artificial intelligence (AI), which effectively counteracted the adverse effects stemming from the conflict in the Middle East.

The WTO highlighted that the expansion in global trade during the January-March period was particularly impressive, especially considering the preceding year's growth was linked to pre-tariff trade between the United States and its partners. While AI-enabling technologies, particularly in office and telecommunications equipment, saw a substantial 44% year-on-year increase in value, other sectors like chemicals (-6%), iron and steel (-5%), and fuels (-3%) experienced a decline in value.

Despite the positive overall performance, the WTO anticipates that trade disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will likely impact the figures for the subsequent quarter. North America saw a significant 7% year-on-year increase in exports, though imports decreased by 10.7% due to early deliveries before anticipated tariff hikes.

The report also noted that while specific trade volumes for AI-enabled goods are not detailed, the U.S. dollar value of this trade surged by over 40% year-on-year in the first quarter. The WTO attributed a large part of the strong performance in the office and telecommunications sector to the sustained demand for AI-enabling technologies.