AI Madness. Is the bubble, the mother of all bubbles, growing right before our eyes?

The soaring valuations of technology companies, measured in trillions of dollars, raise a critical question: are we witnessing the formation of the 21st century's largest speculative bubble? While the narrative of a "new era of the economy" is appealing, market realities are beginning to eerily resemble the dot-com fever of the turn of the millennium.

The recent debut of SpaceX on the Nasdaq stock exchange, with a valuation of $2.1 trillion at Friday's close, is a stark example. This figure, equivalent to approximately 7.7 trillion Polish złoty, could fund Poland's "Family 800+" program for nearly 125 years or build over 150,000 kilometers of high-speed roads, 30 times Poland's current network. This valuation represents roughly 90-100 times SpaceX's annual revenue, driven by investor faith in technological dominance in space, breakthroughs in AI, and the perceived infallibility of CEO Elon Musk.

However, SpaceX is not alone in this race for astronomical valuations, which are largely fueled by belief in artificial intelligence. Nvidia's market capitalization has already surpassed $5 trillion, and other players like OpenAI and Anthropic are lining up for their own IPOs. This mirrors the speculative frenzy of the late 1990s, where any company with ".com" in its name saw its value skyrocket, based on the promise that the internet would change everything.

The psychological mechanism behind speculative bubbles remains consistent throughout history, driven by human greed and the fear of missing out. From 17th-century Dutch tulip mania, where rare bulbs commanded prices equivalent to Amsterdam houses, to today's digital tokens and AI stocks, the pattern persists. While the revolution promised by AI may be real, the current prices do not necessarily reflect sustainable value. The author warns that, as seen in the dot-com crash, many of today's market leaders could face bankruptcy before the transformative potential is fully realized.

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Co najmniej od roku inwestorzy i eksperci od rynków kapitałowych zadają sobie pytanie: czy to jeszcze normalny rynek, czy już czyste szaleństwo?