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AI Reshapes Poland's Job Market, Banks Analyze Credit Risks
🇵🇱 Poland /Economy & Trade

AI Reshapes Poland's Job Market, Banks Analyze Credit Risks

From Rzeczpospolita · () Polish

Translated from Polish, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

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  • Artificial intelligence is poised to significantly alter Poland's labor market and economy, potentially increasing capital's share of income over labor's, according to a World Bank report.
  • Over 5 million Polish jobs may be susceptible to automation by generative AI, with about 800,000 individuals in roles like administration and accounting most at risk.
  • Polish banks are currently analyzing AI's potential impact on credit risk and loan demand, though its direct influence on consumer credit decisions is not yet significant.

Artificial intelligence is poised to reshape Poland's economy and labor market, with a World Bank report suggesting a shift towards capital income over labor income. This transformation could see job growth in sectors like construction while leading to a decline in modern services such as finance and IT, areas currently offering higher salaries.

Evidence of this shift is already emerging, with recruitment portals showing a decrease in junior positions. A report by NASK and the International Labour Organization indicates that over 5 million jobs in Poland are partially vulnerable to automation by generative AI, and approximately 800,000 people work in professions most exposed to its impact. These high-risk roles primarily involve administration, accounting, customer service, and data entry.

For the credit market, AI's effect on employment and household income is crucial. Increased job and earning uncertainty typically reduces the willingness to take on long-term financial commitments, particularly mortgages. This could lead to slower credit growth, lower sales of financial products, and a greater risk of loan portfolio deterioration for banks.

While banks are actively analyzing these potential threats, the direct impact of AI on credit decisions remains more theoretical than practical. Alior Bank's AI Enablement and Process Optimization team manager, Angelina Szczepaniec, stated that "at the current stage, we do not observe clear signals indicating that the development of artificial intelligence is already significantly influencing customers' decisions regarding taking out mortgages or cash loans." Banks are monitoring the situation, but for now, demand for mortgages remains high, likely driven by concerns over interest rates, inflation, and property prices.

At the current stage, we do not observe clear signals indicating that the development of artificial intelligence is already significantly influencing customers' decisions regarding taking out mortgages or cash loans.

— Angelina SzczepaniecAngelina Szczepaniec, manager of the AI Enablement and Process Optimization Team at the AI Competence Center at Alior Bank, commented on the current impact of AI on credit decisions.
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Originally published by Rzeczpospolita in Polish. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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