Amid Current Battles, Democrats Look Ahead to 2028

Democrats are once again recalibrating their presidential nominating calendar, seeking to achieve a delicate balance that is equitable to the party's diverse voting blocs while avoiding undue favoritism towards any of the numerous potential candidates. This latest iteration, pending ratification by the Democratic National Committee and adoption by the involved states, solidifies a plan initially conceived by allies of Joe Biden four years prior.

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The Democrats are at it again, fiddling with the presidential nominating calendar in hopes of achieving the impossible, making it even-handed towards the party’s various voting groups without favouring any of the large field of potential candidates.

The revised schedule grants South Carolina's largely Black Democratic electorate the coveted first position, preceding the contests in the predominantly white states of Iowa and New Hampshire. Iowa, which experienced significant issues with vote counting in both 2016 and 2020, has been entirely removed from the initial group of influential early states, now falling behind the multi-state Super Tuesday primaries in early March. New Hampshire is slated for third place, after South Carolina and Nevada.

However, history indicates that predicting election results based on the sequence of contests is a challenging endeavor. The fact that South Carolina's Democratic electorate is more than half Black does not automatically guarantee success for a Black candidate, nor does it significantly boost the prospects of any candidate who does win there. Furthermore, even if the full Democratic National Committee approves this calendar, three key factors are expected to influence the decision-making process of its Rules and Bylaws Committee.

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History has shown it is very difficult to predict the results from the order of the contests.

Firstly, the Republican Party is likely to maintain its established calendar from recent election cycles. This means the GOP race will commence with the Iowa caucuses, potentially on January 3, 2028, followed by the New Hampshire GOP primary on Tuesday, January 11. Several prominent Republicans have expressed intentions to run, even if President Donald Trump seeks to endorse a successor. Secondly, regardless of Democratic rule-makers' decisions, New Hampshire's state law mandates that its primary will be the first Democratic primary, occurring on the same day as the Republican primary. While this may not allocate New Hampshire's small number of Democratic delegates, it is difficult to imagine serious Democratic candidates foregoing the opportunity for the psychological advantage of an early victory there. Iowa Democrats might hold a non-binding straw poll during their precinct caucuses a week earlier, but their final decisions will come later.

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That means that, no matter what Democratic rule-makers say, the first Democratic primary will be in New Hampshire, on the same day as the Republicans. State law requires it.

Thirdly, despite efforts to empower groups such as African Americans in South Carolina and Hispanics in Nevada, financial resources are anticipated to play an even more critical role than before. The Democrats' system of proportional delegate allocation encourages more candidates to remain in the nominating race for extended periods compared to the GOP's winner-take-all rules, irrespective of early results, provided they possess adequate funding. Joe Biden's 2020 campaign trajectory, finishing fourth in Iowa and fifth in New Hampshire before rebounding with a second-place finish in Nevada and securing a breakthrough victory in South Carolina, exemplifies this dynamic. The likely size of the candidate field may necessitate that a contender wins at least one of these early contests to sustain their campaign.

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Despite the effort to empower groups like South Carolina’s African Americans and Nevada’s Hispanics, money will be more important than ever.