AMOC Collapse Could Unleash Hundreds of Billions of Tons of Antarctic Carbon, Study Warns

A recent study published in Nature Communications Earth & Environment has revealed a potentially catastrophic consequence of climate change: the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).

German researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research have warned that if the AMOC system, responsible for circulating half of the Earth's heat and ocean salinity, were to break down, it could trigger the release of an immense amount of carbon stored in the Antarctic deep sea. This release, estimated at up to 640 billion tons of carbon dioxide, could further elevate global temperatures by 0.2 degrees Celsius and cause sea levels to rise by tens of meters.

The AMOC is a massive oceanic circulation where warm, salty surface water from the Gulf of Mexico travels north, cools, and then returns south through the deep ocean. Scientists have long known that melting Greenland ice is diluting this current, slowing it down. However, this new research indicates that the southward flow has already decreased by 15%.

Alarmingly, the study suggests that if atmospheric CO2 concentrations exceed 350 ppm, the AMOC may not be able to recover. With current levels approaching 430 ppm, the collapse appears increasingly inevitable. The consequences would be severe: a 7-degree Celsius cooling in the Arctic, a 6-degree Celsius warming in the Antarctic, and significant disruptions to global climate patterns, including monsoons in Africa and Asia. The research suggests this collapse could happen within the next 25 to 50 years, underscoring the urgent need for climate action.

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The collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation could occur within the next 25 to 50 years.