An Arab final at the 2026 World Cup? Analyzing the chances of the eight representatives

The 2026 World Cup, hosted by the United States, Canada, and Mexico, will feature an expanded 48-team format, introducing a new configuration with 12 groups. This edition is poised to be historic for Arab football, with a record eight national teams qualifying for the first time: Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq.

Morocco stands out as the most credible Arab contender for reaching the final. The Atlas Lions, who made history as the first African and Arab team to reach the semi-finals in 2022, boast an experienced squad and top-tier players like Achraf Hakimi. Currently ranked among the world's best and placed in Group C with Brazil, Scotland, and Haiti, Morocco's path to the knockout stages appears accessible. However, their deeper tournament progression will hinge on maintaining a high level of performance.

Algeria, participating in their fifth World Cup, aims to replicate their 2014 achievement of reaching the Round of 16. Drawn into a tough group with Argentina, Jordan, and Austria, the Desert Foxes possess a competitive squad and experienced players. While qualifying for the knockout stages, potentially the Round of 16 or quarterfinals, is within reach, advancing to the semi-finals or final seems improbable.

Tunisia, making their seventh World Cup appearance, faces a difficult group alongside the Netherlands, Japan, and Sweden. Despite being the first African and Arab nation to win a World Cup match in 1978, the Carthage Eagles' current form is considered insufficient for a deep run. Reaching the Round of 32 would be a satisfactory outcome, with a final appearance deemed highly unlikely.

Egypt will compete in their fourth World Cup, placed in a group with Belgium, Iran, and New Zealand. The Pharaohs' primary objective is to secure their first-ever World Cup victory, which could pave the way for advancing to the knockout phase.