Analyst: Zelenskyy's visit signals Serbia's EU bid, but domestic issues hinder progress

Duško Lopandić, a former diplomat and vice-president of the Srbija Centra (SRCE) party, contends that Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić's hosting of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is a strategic signal to Berlin and Brussels, timed ahead of Serbian elections. Lopandić characterizes this move as a tactical, short-term maneuver devoid of genuine strategy, suggesting Vučić might leverage the visit to request a personal favor from Zelenskyy.

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I would say this is President Vučić boarding the Kyiv train – four years late. Like Milošević back then, he failed to notice that relations in Europe changed drastically in 2022.

Lopandić views Zelenskyy's visit to Serbia as highly symbolic, particularly given Serbia's official neutrality regarding the war in Ukraine. He likens Vučić's approach to that of Slobodan Milošević, suggesting a failure to recognize the significant geopolitical shifts in Europe since 2022. Lopandić asserts that Belgrade's official stance on the war, coupled with its domestic policies, impedes Serbia's path toward European Union membership. He points to reports of 'under the table' arms exports and other forms of aid to Ukraine, despite the government's public statements against imposing sanctions on Russia.

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Despite what this government tells its voters, that Serbia will never impose sanctions on Russia, we hear that there was 'under the table' export of weapons, as well as other aid.

The core objective of the visit, according to Lopandić, is to signal to the West, especially Brussels, that Serbia is prepared to choose between Moscow and Brussels, a choice previously urged by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. This is seen in the context of Serbia's efforts to open Chapter 3 of EU accession talks. However, Lopandić believes Serbia lags significantly behind in its EU aspirations due to both its foreign and domestic policies. He dismisses Vučić's "political juggling" in foreign policy as unlikely to yield substantial results, arguing that Serbia does not present itself as a credible EU candidate due to a lack of internal reforms.

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The essence of the visit for Belgrade is to send a signal to the West, especially Brussels, that Serbia is ready to do what Chancellor Scholz told him a few months ago – to choose between Moscow and Brussels, to take a position.

Furthermore, Lopandić suggests that Vučić is attempting to gain political advantage within Serbia's election campaign context. He speculates that Vučić might be trying to distract from potential election fraud and believes the Serbian president has concluded that Russia currently offers little tangible benefit, citing ongoing issues with sanctions on NIS (Naftna Industrija Srbije) and short-term gas agreements. The mention of diversifying gas supplies and purchasing liquefied natural gas from the US in a recent agreement with the Americans is also noted.

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But regardless of whether and when Chapter 3 will be opened, Serbia is definitely at least ten years behind, both because of its foreign policy and because of its domestic policy.