Analysts weigh in on Zelenskyy's Belgrade visit: A signal to Brussels, a blow to Moscow?

The recent meeting between Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Belgrade has drawn significant attention from regional and international analysts, who view it as a pivotal moment in Serbia's geopolitical positioning. Duško Lopandić, a former diplomat, described the encounter as a clear signal of Belgrade's shift towards Brussels, anticipating potential rewards for Vučić in the near future. However, Lopandić cautioned that Serbia is not in a position to fully commit to one side over the other.

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This is certainly a shift by Belgrade towards Brussels, signals for which Vučić will then expect some reward in the foreseeable future, and that will be the primary effect of the visit. But I would say that Serbia is not in a position to completely stand on one side or the other.

Nikola Ksavijeref of the German Council on Foreign Relations believes Moscow will not react negatively to the visit, attributing this to Serbia's adept diplomatic maneuvering. He suggested that while the Kremlin won't celebrate the meeting, they can accommodate the differences through carefully packaged diplomacy. Ksavijeref noted that the press conference following the talks indicated a formal and an informal component, with sensitive issues likely addressed during a private dinner.

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There will be no negative sentiments towards this in the Kremlin, of course they are not happy, but this is the policy where differences are always diplomatically packaged in a way that one can live with.

Former Ukrainian Consul in Belgrade, Oleksandr Levchenko, expressed that the specifics of the private discussions remain unknown but unsurprising, given Belgrade's complex relationship with both Moscow and Kyiv. He emphasized the importance of bilateral relations serving the interests of both nations, particularly concerning their shared European Union aspirations. Levchenko pointed out the similar challenges both Serbia and Ukraine face in EU accession negotiations.

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It is important that these relations are in the interest of our two states, we have something to talk about regarding our European path, Ukraine and Serbia are moving towards joining the EU and that is important.

Speculation about potential Serbian-Ukrainian cooperation on drone production, fueled by a report citing former U.S. Ambassador to Serbia Christopher Hill, has been met with skepticism by experts. While acknowledging the possibility, given Serbia's existing drone manufacturing agreements, analysts like Edvard Joseph from Johns Hopkins University suggest that a full-scale collaboration is unlikely. Marko Savković of the ISAC Fund noted that Serbia's continued reliance on its relationship with Russia complicates such a prospect, suggesting that the relationship is no longer a true partnership.

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I would not rule out the possibility that it is possible, I don't know if it will really happen. Serbia has previously entered into a contract with an Israeli company regarding the production of drones, but this is certainly a possibility.