Argentina's Wheat Outlook Improves on Lower Fertilizer Costs and Better Prospects

Argentine farmers are showing renewed enthusiasm for wheat cultivation, with the projected decrease in planted area for the 2026/2027 campaign now estimated at 350,000 hectares, down from an earlier forecast of 500,000 hectares. This shift is driven by a significant drop in the price of urea, a critical fertilizer, and favorable water conditions.

The Rosario Board of Trade (BCR) reports that urea prices have fallen to between $800 and $850 per ton, a decrease from previous highs of $1,000 per hectare. This price adjustment makes fertilization more accessible, boosting farmer confidence. Additionally, expectations for higher wheat sale prices, influenced by climate-related issues in major producing countries like the United States, France, and Australia, further encourage planting.

Consequently, the BCR has revised its wheat harvest projection upward to 20 million tons. While this is an improvement from earlier estimates of 18 to 19 million tons, it remains below the record 29.5 million tons harvested in the 2025/26 campaign. The current planting area of 6.82 million hectares would still represent the fourth-largest wheat sowing in 17 years for Argentina. The average yield is now expected to reach 30.5 quintals per hectare, assuming normal weather and that 250,000 hectares are not harvested.

The BCR also adjusted its soybean harvest projection upward to 51.5 million tons, citing improved yields.

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De a poco se están alineando factores claves para volver a tener un gran ciclo productivo de trigo en la Argentina.