Armenia votes in test of Westward pivot away from Russia

Armenia is heading to the polls on June 7 in a parliamentary election that will gauge the direction of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's westward shift. The vote takes place under the shadow of threats and accusations of interference from Russia, the country's historical ally and former imperial power.

Armenia and Russia are technically allies, but Moscow views Armenia's European Union aspirations similarly to Ukraine's path, which it claims triggered the 2022 invasion. Pashinyan, who rose to power in a 2018 revolution, is leading the country through a period of significant upheaval. Armenia is still recovering from Azerbaijan's military takeover of the Karabakh region in 2023, which led to the displacement of most of the Armenian population.

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We all see what is happening with Ukraine now... How did it all begin? With Ukraine’s attempt to join the EU.

Pashinyan has framed the election as a critical choice between lasting peace with Azerbaijan and a return to conflict. He has actively sought to lessen Armenia's reliance on Moscow, particularly after Russia offered no support during the Karabakh war. Consequently, Armenia has frozen its participation in a Russia-led security bloc while strengthening ties with the European Union and the United States, setting a course toward potential EU membership.

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Russia has been and will remain our strategic partner and principal economic partner.

While former US President Donald Trump has endorsed Pashinyan, Russia has expressed displeasure over the potential loss of an ally. Russian President Vladimir Putin has drawn parallels between Ukraine's EU ambitions and the current situation in Armenia. The Kremlin has been accused of attempting to influence the election through online misinformation, cyberattacks, and pro-Kremlin narratives that depict Western cooperation as perilous. Russia also banned certain Armenian imports, seen as economic pressure.

Pashinyan insists he does not seek a complete break with Moscow, but the election is fundamentally a contest over Armenia's geopolitical future. Both Pashinyan and his main rivals have accused each other of risking renewed conflict. Pashinyan warns of a "catastrophic war" with Azerbaijan if his party does not secure a strong majority, while opponents dismiss this as fearmongering. Samvel Karapetyan, a prominent Russian-Armenian businessman and rival, rejects claims he would align Armenia with Russia but criticizes Pashinyan's "reckless rush" westward, stating Russia remains a strategic partner.

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catastrophic war