Artificial intelligence threatens 1.5 million jobs in Morocco by 2030

A stark warning emerges from a recent comparative strategic report by the African Center for Strategic Studies and Digitization (CAESD), casting a shadow over Morocco's economic future. Titled "Artificial Intelligence and the Reshaping of Labor Markets in Arab and African Countries, Horizon 2030-2035," the study paints a concerning picture for the Kingdom. It identifies Morocco as being in a "sensitive intermediate stage" characterized by high transformative pressure that will lead to a comprehensive structural shift in the national labor market. The implications are profound, suggesting that the nation must urgently adapt to the accelerating pace of technological change.

The report's findings are alarming: approximately 1.5 million jobs are projected to face direct technological redundancy by 2030. Furthermore, the cognitive and analytical functions of another 4.6 million jobs, representing 14% of the total workforce, will be affected to varying degrees. This significant disruption is exacerbated by the limited compensatory capacity of the digital economy, which is expected to create only about 180,000 new jobs during the same period. This imbalance results in a projected net deficit of 1.32 million jobs, a figure that demands immediate attention and strategic planning.

From our vantage point at Hespress, this report underscores a critical challenge facing Morocco and many developing nations. While AI promises innovation and efficiency, its potential to displace workers, particularly those in vulnerable sectors like offshoring (BPO), financial services, public administration, and manufacturing, cannot be ignored. The report's identification of sectoral hotspots, including call centers and data-driven services, highlights the immediate need for proactive measures. The paradox of qualification, where even highly educated individuals are at risk due to AI's ability to simulate advanced cognitive skills, is particularly worrying.

Moreover, the report raises concerns about the impact on youth employment and gender equality. Entry-level positions, often the first rung on the career ladder for young Moroccans, are vulnerable, hindering professional accumulation and social mobility. Women, who are disproportionately concentrated in administrative and support roles susceptible to automation (up to 65% exposure), face heightened digital fragility. As we look towards 2035 and the advent of advanced physical technologies, the competitive advantage of low-cost labor in sectors like agriculture, textiles, and construction may diminish, further complicating Morocco's economic landscape. The CAESD's call for retraining between 250,000 and 480,000 workers annually, contrasted with the meager output of digital talent from vocational and university training, reveals a critical implementation gap. Morocco has a narrow window to navigate this technological revolution effectively.