As China's regional influence expands so does it's strike capacity over Australia, says think tank

China's military expansion is significantly reshaping the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific, posing increasing security challenges for Australia, according to a report by the Lowy Institute think tank. While the ability to strike Australian territory directly will grow over the next decade, the report highlights cyberattacks and the severing of undersea communication cables as more immediate threats.

The development of new long-range stealth bombers and the potential deployment of missiles and aircraft to bases closer to Australia could "quickly and dramatically" escalate the long-term threat, the Sydney-based think tank stated. The report also noted China's efforts since 2018 to secure basing arrangements in Pacific Island nations, which could bring central Australia within bomber combat range and enable more frequent attacks.

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China's military build-up is reshaping the balance of power in ways that affect Australian security regardless of China's ability to strike Australian territory.

Near-term threats do not necessarily involve conventional weapons. China possesses strong capabilities to disrupt Australia's maritime trade by targeting chokepoints in the Indonesian archipelago. The report indicates that China can already strike northern Australia with missiles launched from its South China Sea outposts.

Despite improving diplomatic ties since 2022, Australia remains vigilant about China's expanding influence in the Pacific. Canberra is actively pursuing security agreements with Pacific nations to prevent Beijing from establishing a permanent military presence in the region, which has historically been considered within the sphere of influence of Australia and its ally, the United States. The Solomon Islands, in particular, has strengthened ties with Beijing, signing a security pact in 2022 that raised concerns in the US and intensified Australia's diplomatic efforts.

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China has actively sought basing arrangements in Pacific Island nations since at least 2018. Any such base would bring central Australia within bomber combat range and allow attacks to be mounted more frequently.