Iran’s regime survives, Israel worries: Winners, losers emerging from new US-Iran deal - analysis

Two Israeli strikes over the past year have significantly influenced a rapid American push toward ceasefire agreements, according to an analysis by The Jerusalem Post. An operation in Qatar on September 9, 2025, targeting senior Hamas leaders, led to a ceasefire in the Gaza war and the release of all Israeli hostages weeks later. This event prompted US President Donald Trump to pressure Israel, Turkey, and Qatar to convey a message to Hamas to end the conflict.

Less than a year later, an Israeli strike on Sunday in Beirut's Dahiyeh district, targeting a Hezbollah headquarters, accelerated US efforts to persuade Iran to sign an agreement. Tehran threatened retaliation, and Trump increased pressure on Iran, along with Qatar and Pakistan, to reach a deal to avoid jeopardizing negotiations. The resulting agreement includes the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and restrictions on Israeli operations in Lebanon.

It remains unclear if Israel will be permitted to act only in response to Iranian attacks or also against Hezbollah's military buildup. Significantly, Iran has secured a temporary lifting of sanctions on oil and petrochemical products, a concession it did not have before the war. Trump's commitment to preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons is also a key question, especially given his reluctance to risk war before the US midterm elections.

Preparations were underway for a potential US strike against Iran and the possibility of renewed Iranian attacks against Israel. However, Trump's announcement of an agreement interrupted these plans. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sought to reassure the public, stating that Trump had assured him no agreement would be finalized without addressing Iran's nuclear program, regional proxies, and ballistic missile arsenal. The US administration, however, appears to view the achievement of a dramatic peace agreement as the most difficult phase, with negotiations on remaining issues to follow.