As Israel enters election season, Netanyahu's opponents face a math problem

As Israel enters what is effectively an election season, the opposition faces a daunting mathematical problem in its quest to unseat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The formal dissolution of the Knesset is expected soon, with elections likely by late October at the latest.

Recent political maneuvering includes comments from Yair Golan, head of the Democrats Party, who stated he would not rule out forming a coalition with ultra-Orthodox parties. However, he stipulated that such a coalition would require the exclusion of right-wing factions led by Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir. Golan also criticized the push for rapid ultra-Orthodox conscription as populism.

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People ask me, do you disqualify the haredim? I do not disqualify the haredim, absolutely not. If the possibility of forming a government depends on a haredi party joining, I will vote in favor – on condition that the Likud, [Religious Zionist head Bezalel] Smotrich, and [Otzma Yehudit leader Itamar] Ben- Gvir are not there.

Meanwhile, Gadi Eisenkot of the Yashar! Party reportedly met with United Torah Judaism chairman Moshe Gafni, who strongly opposes ultra-Orthodox conscription. This meeting underscores the complex coalition arithmetic the opposition must navigate.

Current polling data suggests the opposition bloc struggles to reach the 61 seats required to form a government, especially without the Arab parties, which key opposition figures have stated they will not partner with. Polls from mid-May show the coalition with a slight edge or a narrow lead over the opposition, highlighting the uphill battle for those seeking to replace Netanyahu.

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We need to work smartly, mainly with indirect pressure, not direct pressure. I want to say here that the entire Draft Law people are talking about is tainted by populism.