Atiku's Fuel Subsidy Promise: A Long March to Enrich Friends?

The article scrutinizes Atiku Abubakar's past and present positions on fuel subsidies, framing them within the context of "crony capitalism" – a system where access to state policy benefits the already powerful and wealthy. A 2019 statement by Abubakar, "I am not going to enrich members of my family but my friends," is revisited as a potential indicator of this philosophy.

While Abubakar's recent comments on fuel subsidies have been clarified to favor a limited subsidy tied to domestic refining rather than a full restoration of the old import-based regime, the fundamental question remains: why should fuel consumption be the primary mechanism for distributing public resources? The author argues that universal petrol subsidies primarily benefit the wealthy, despite claims of aiding all Nigerians.

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I am not going to enrich members of my family but my friends.

The core of the argument rests on the principle that "the direct benefit of a petrol subsidy follows the litre." This means individuals consuming more subsidized fuel receive a proportionally larger benefit. Data from the 2024 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey indicates that only about 10% of Nigerian households own a car, with ownership at 5% in rural areas. This disparity highlights how the subsidy system fails to directly benefit the poor, such as farmers who walk to work or households relying on firewood for cooking.

Even those using public transport share the subsidy's benefit with many others. In contrast, wealthy households with multiple vehicles, generators, and businesses consume vast amounts of subsidized fuel, receiving a significantly larger share of the benefit. The article points out the stark financial reality: filling a large SUV can cost between ₦120,000 to ₦130,000 at current prices, exceeding Nigeria's statutory minimum wage of ₦70,000.

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the direct benefit of a petrol subsidy follows the litre.