Atlantic climate variability can predict leishmaniasis outbreaks in Africa

A groundbreaking study reveals that climate patterns in the Atlantic Ocean can forecast outbreaks of cutaneous leishmaniasis in North Africa with up to a year's notice. Researchers from the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) and the Institut Pasteur in Tunisia, Morocco, and France published their findings in the journal Science Advances.

The study highlights how specific climate patterns, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), influence winter winds, humidity, and rainfall in the region. These climatic factors, in turn, directly affect desert vegetation growth in Tunisia and Morocco, impacting the populations of rodents that serve as reservoirs for the leishmaniasis parasite.

Unlike tropical regions where phenomena like El Niño aid long-term predictions, temperate zones have historically presented a less predictable atmosphere for vector-borne diseases. This research overcomes that limitation by developing a dynamic model that simulates the transmission cycle between humans, sandflies, and rodents. The model successfully predicts the emergence of Leishmania major and Leishmania tropica outbreaks with a 12-month lead time.

Adrià San-José, the study's lead author and an ISGlobal researcher, explained that the desert acts as a natural filter, amplifying the Atlantic's climate signal and transferring its predictability to an infectious disease. Xavier Rodó, an ICREA researcher at ISGlobal, described the work as pioneering, opening avenues for early warning systems in non-tropical areas. The ability to anticipate outbreaks allows public health systems to proactively implement preventive measures, such as insect control, animal reservoir management, and healthcare resource preparation.

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