Atlas poll: Ciro Gomes leads Ceará governor's race with 48.4%, Elmano at 45.8%

Ciro Gomes leads incumbent Ceará governor Elmano de Freitas by 48.4% to 45.8% in an AtlasIntel poll for the 2026 state election. The survey's margin of error is two percentage points.

Among valid votes, Gomes reaches 50.5%, compared with 47.8% for Elmano, putting the former governor above the threshold for a first-round victory. Other candidates received 1.1% or less. Blank and invalid ballots accounted for 1.2%, while 3% of respondents were undecided.

The poll's runoff scenario also favors Gomes, who received 50% of voting intentions against 46.1% for Elmano. Blank and invalid votes totaled 1.4%, and 2.5% of respondents were undecided.

AtlasIntel conducted 1,834 online interviews from Aug. 28 to Sept. 2. The poll has a 95% confidence level and was registered with Brazil's Superior Electoral Court under protocols CE-02357/2026 and BR-07411/2026.

In the presidential race in Ceará, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round, 51.6% to 25.7%. Lula also leads in the tested runoff scenario, with 54.6% against 30.1% for Bolsonaro's eldest son. Blank, invalid and undecided responses total 15.3% in that matchup.