Atlas poll puts Cleitinho ahead in Minas Gerais governor race with 41%

Senator Cleitinho Azevedo leads the race for governor of Minas Gerais with 41% of voting intentions, according to an AtlasIntel poll conducted from August 30 to September 4. Workers’ Party candidate Patrus Ananias follows with 30%, while Alexandre Kalil of the Democratic Labour Party has 9.2%.

The remaining candidates include Gabriel of the Brazilian Democratic Movement with 4.7%, Ben Mendes of Missão with 4.1%, and Flávio Roscoe of the Liberal Party and Mateus Simões of the Social Democratic Party, each with 4%. Other candidates received 0.5%. White or invalid votes accounted for 0.4%, while 2.2% were undecided. Among valid votes, Cleitinho had 42.1%, Patrus 30.8% and Kalil 9.5%.

In the poll’s second-round simulations, Cleitinho defeated all three opponents tested. He led Patrus 53.4% to 39.3%, Kalil 53.3% to 35.5%, and Gabriel 55.3% to 21.9%. Patrus led in the other two matchups, beating Mateus Simões 43.4% to 30.8% and Flávio Roscoe 44.3% to 28.2%.

The poll also showed a strong preference for a change in the state administration. Some 78.9% of respondents said they preferred a candidate who would govern differently from the current administration, compared with 17% who preferred continuity. Another 4.1% did not answer.

Romeu Zema’s administration, which he left in March to run for president, was disapproved of by 57.6% and approved by 35.7%. Mateus Simões’ performance was disapproved of by 53% and approved by 23%, with 25% undecided. AtlasIntel surveyed 1,804 Minas Gerais voters through random digital recruitment. The margin of error was two percentage points, with a 95% confidence level. The poll was registered with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court under protocols MG-01579/2026 and BR-05852/2026. In the presidential race among Minas Gerais voters, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva led with 44.3%, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro with 35.4%.