August-September rain likely to be below normal, says IMD

India is likely to experience below-normal rainfall for the remainder of the monsoon season through August and September, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). This forecast comes after a significant recovery in monsoon activity during July.

The IMD's long-range forecast indicates that El Niño conditions are expected to intensify in the coming months. This strengthening is predicted to negatively affect the monsoon's performance in its second half. Consequently, rainfall is expected to be less than 94% of the long-period average for August and September.

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India saw four low pressure systems developing in July over the Bay of Bengal, out of which two intensified further into a depression. These low pressure systems helped bring particularly good rainfall over central India.

July saw a marked turnaround, with cumulative rainfall reaching -13% as of July 30, a substantial improvement from -40% at the end of June. The month recorded 283.3mm of rainfall nationally, slightly above the long-period average. This recovery was attributed to the development of four low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal, which brought good rainfall to central India. Despite these positive developments in July, the overall outlook for the rest of the season is now cautious due to the anticipated strengthening of El Niño.

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Despite a moderate El Nino, above normal low pressure system (LPS) days helped negate the effect somewhat.