Augusto Cury Can Aim No Higher Than Third Place, Even With Renan’s Votes

Renan Santos is leaving the race’s center stage, and Augusto Cury is moving into it. Yet the shift has not disturbed the election’s central divide between frontrunners Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro, according to the column. Neither Renan nor Cury has the strength to reshape that polarization.

Renan’s campaign has suffered a series of restrictions. He no longer has access to free election advertising and, after a decision by Supreme Electoral Court Justice Dias Toffoli, he is also barred from digital campaigning, receiving public campaign funds, and taking part in debates and interviews. Renan has called the ruling an “authoritarian inflection” and “absurd,” and accused the judiciary of dictatorship and abuse.

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authoritarian inflection

The column questions whether Toffoli’s unilateral decision will stand. It says the ruling has drawn criticism behind the scenes at the court and may have increased attention around Renan while strengthening his image as a victim. The more immediate electoral question is where Renan’s supporters will go. Because his positions are closer to Bolsonaro’s camp than to Lula’s, some could move to Flávio Bolsonaro. But the column presents that as only one possibility.

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absurd

Cury is another potential destination. His outsider status may appeal to Renan’s voters, who, like Cury’s supporters, are described as receptive to political newcomers and anti-establishment candidates. The column rejects claims that Cury could realistically have jumped from 2% to 11% in a single week, despite his heavy presence on social media.

It credits Cury’s main advantage to his decision to attack the polarization itself, criticizing Lula and Flávio in equal measure and relying on facts rather than hysteria. Ronaldo Caiado, by contrast, has focused most of his attacks on Lula and gained little from it. The column says Caiado has repeatedly let opportunities slip in interviews, debates, and campaign programs, leaving third place as the highest position Cury can realistically seek.

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Abuse