Australian Monsoon and Strong El Nino Hinder Cloud Growth in North Sulawesi

North Sulawesi is experiencing a significant reduction in cloud growth and rainfall due to the active Australian monsoon and a strong El Nino, according to the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) Sam Ratulangi Manado Station. The prevailing clear to light rain conditions across most of the province are a direct result of these global weather patterns.

Karina Husna, Operational Coordinator at BMKG Sam Ratulangi Manado, explained that the strong El Nino combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is creating high atmospheric pressure. This condition not only inhibits cloud development but also increases wind speeds in the region. Additionally, a tropical cyclone seed, 97W, located in the northern Pacific Ocean near Papua, is further contributing to higher wind speeds in North Sulawesi.

Despite the generally dry conditions, BMKG has issued early warnings effective until August 30, 2026. Residents are advised to be aware of the potential for moderate to heavy rain, accompanied by lightning, thunder, and strong winds. The dry season has already led to serious impacts, including forest and land fires in several areas like Manado, South Minahasa, and Southeast Minahasa regencies. A particularly severe incident in the protected forest area of Mount Soputan in Southeast Minahasa resulted in approximately one thousand hectares being scorched by fires fueled by the dry weather and strong winds.

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El Nino with strong intensity and positive IOD influences the inhibition of cloud growth due to high atmospheric pressure conditions, which also increase wind speed in the Sulut region.