B.C. government confirms $1.46 billion in natural gas revenue forecast errors

British Columbia officials acknowledged that errors in the province’s natural gas forecasts overstated projected revenue by about $1.46 billion over five fiscal years. The mistakes included a faulty currency conversion in a spreadsheet.

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serious mistake

Energy Minister Adrian Dix said the largest error involved the forecast price of natural gas this fiscal year. Officials overstated it by 44 cents per gigajoule, a “serious mistake.” The error occurred because staff treated figures provided in Canadian dollars as if they were in U.S. dollars, then converted them into Canadian dollars again.

Dix said the errors affected the province’s forecasts, not its actual revenue. Natural gas prices can fluctuate, and the province has both underestimated and overestimated revenue in previous years. “That part is a normal part. What isn’t a part of it is human error that we’re acknowledging today and correcting in the budget,” he told reporters in Vancouver.

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That part is a normal part. What isn’t a part of it is human error that we’re acknowledging today and correcting in the budget.

Senior officials from the energy and finance ministries said the errors had undergone independent verification. The government plans to include corrections in its quarterly fiscal report expected later this month. That report will also clarify the effect on the deficit, which stood at $7.7 billion for the 2025-2026 fiscal year.

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This isn’t just an accounting error. It’s a credibility problem.

The corrected figure reduced the forecast gas price for 2026-2027 by 44 cents per gigajoule. Budget 2026 listed forecast prices ranging from $2.34 to $4.83 per gigajoule at the plant inlet, referring to gas that has not yet been processed. Dix said the government would change its procedures to prevent similar mistakes. Opposition finance critic Gavin Dew called for an auditor general’s examination, saying, “This isn’t just an accounting error. It’s a credibility problem.” Opposition Leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay said the province could not afford budgets built on “wishful thinking.”

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wishful thinking