Bangladesh may feel El Nino’s heat, but not its full force

Bangladesh may experience the effects of El Niño in the coming months, with the national meteorological department forecasting up to 10 heatwaves over the next three months. However, climatologists believe the country might be spared the most severe impacts of the global weather phenomenon.

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I think El Niño could have a moderate impact on Bangladesh’s monsoon in 2026.

Experts suggest that El Niño is expected to develop later in the season, possibly towards late summer or winter, which could moderate its influence on Bangladesh. Dr. Rashed Chowdhury, a climate scientist at Arizona State University, noted that a later development might mean El Niño's impact on the monsoon could be felt more significantly in 2026, rather than causing the severe droughts or monsoon failures seen in past strong El Niño years like 1982-83 or 1997-98.

While the United Nations weather agency has warned of potentially strong El Niño conditions globally, leading to warmer temperatures and increased extreme weather risks, the specific impact on Bangladesh remains nuanced. Climatologists point out that El Niño is just one of several interconnected factors influencing the South Asian monsoon, with conditions in the Indian Ocean and regional atmospheric patterns also playing crucial roles.

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There is no reason for panic, but it would be wise to remain prepared and continue monitoring the climate situation in the coming months.

Bazlur Rashid, a senior meteorologist at the Bangladesh Meteorology Department, confirmed expectations of less rainfall and higher temperatures this monsoon season. He stated that the country could face eight to 10 heatwaves in the next three months, with three to four expected in June alone. Despite these forecasts, experts advise against panic, recommending continued monitoring and preparedness for the evolving climate situation.

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But we cannot go into further detail right now, like what would be the temperature like in coming months.