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🇮🇸 Iceland /Elections & Politics

Betting sites predict Iceland will reject EU membership talks

From Morgunblaðið · () Icelandic

Translated from Icelandic and summarized by DistantNews. Read the original for the full story.

At a glance

News Named sources Context piece
  • Betting sites indicate a high probability that Iceland will reject resuming membership negotiations with the European Union.
  • Operators like EpicBet report significant sums wagered, with odds favoring a 'no' vote.
  • Betting platforms have historically shown greater accuracy than opinion polls in predicting Icelandic election results.

Betting websites are forecasting that Iceland will likely reject the prospect of resuming membership talks with the European Union. Odds offered by platforms such as EpicBet suggest that the Icelandic public is leaning towards a 'no' vote on re-engaging with the EU.

It's a bit like an opinion poll, you never know what will happen, but it seems that betting sites have a hell of a good predictive value.

— Daði Laxdal GautasonThe business development manager at EpicBet commenting on the accuracy of betting sites in predicting outcomes.

Daði Laxdal Gautason, business development manager at EpicBet, noted the predictive power of betting sites. "It's a bit like an opinion poll, you never know what will happen, but it seems that betting sites have a hell of a good predictive value," he said. Gautason pointed to their accuracy in past parliamentary elections, stating that betting sites were more precise than all opinion polls.

Currently, EpicBet lists odds of 3.10 for a 'yes' outcome and 1.45 for a 'no' vote. These odds have fluctuated since betting began following the announcement of the referendum. Initially, a 'yes' vote seemed more probable, but following local elections, the 'no' vote gained traction among bettors.

the 'yes' was more likely at the beginning. Then after the local elections, the 'no' became more likely and people started to believe in it more.

— Daði Laxdal GautasonGautason describing the shift in betting trends regarding the EU referendum.

While recent opinion polls suggest a close race, often predicting a narrow victory for 'yes,' Gautason highlighted that the odds for 'no' have consistently remained lower. He observed that especially after recent debates, polls have shown a 50/50 split or even a slight edge for 'no,' causing the odds to shift significantly. "Lately, especially after the debates, opinion polls have been pointing to a 50/50 situation and even leaning slightly towards 'no,' and our odds have been crashing," he explained.

Lately, especially after the debates, opinion polls have been pointing to a 50/50 situation and even leaning slightly towards 'no,' and our odds have been crashing.

— Daði Laxdal GautasonGautason explaining recent shifts in public opinion and betting odds.

Gautason emphasized that while nothing is guaranteed, betting sites have proven to be a reliable indicator over time. "We've been a bit ahead of opinion polls. If I had to guess, I would follow the betting sites rather than anything else." Millions of Icelandic krona have been wagered on the outcome, with other sites like Coolbet and Polymarket also offering odds.

We've been a bit ahead of opinion polls. If I had to guess, I would follow the betting sites rather than anything else.

— Daði Laxdal GautasonGautason expressing confidence in betting sites as predictors over traditional polls.
About this summary

Originally published by Morgunblaðið in Icelandic. Translated, summarized, and contextualized automatically by DistantNews, with a note on how the source frames the story. Not individually reviewed before publishing. How this works.

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