Beyond El Niño: Pacific Ocean Faces Multiple Warming Phenomena

Indonesian climate researchers are highlighting that the recent warming of Pacific Ocean surface temperatures, particularly from April to early June 2026, is not solely attributable to El Niño. Erma Yulihastin from the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) stated that this year's subsurface warming, which bears similarities to the 1997 El Niño, is occurring alongside other significant climate phenomena.

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Based on its time evolution, the push from the Kelvin wave is causing climate change to happen faster than under normal conditions.

These accompanying events include the rapid movement of Kelvin waves, which are characterized by the westward-to-eastward propagation of mass and energy along the equator. Yulihastin noted that the timing of these Kelvin waves is accelerating climate changes beyond typical conditions. Compounding the situation is the presence of "Blob," a marine heatwave phenomenon described as extreme hot spots in specific ocean areas.

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What is happening in 2026 is not just single, but multi-phenomenon. There is an El Niño whose intensity is rapidly strengthening, exacerbated by the movement of Kelvin waves and the Blob.

Unlike the 1997 El Niño, the current "Blob" phenomenon is occurring simultaneously with El Niño, a situation more akin to 2015. "What is happening in 2026 is not just single, but multi-phenomenon. There is an El Niño whose intensity is rapidly strengthening, exacerbated by the movement of Kelvin waves and the Blob," Yulihastin explained. The warming is also expanding northward, a pattern previously observed in 2015. Global warming, estimated at 1-2 degrees Celsius, may also be exacerbating these conditions.

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Global warming, about 1–2 degrees Celsius, also has the potential to be a factor that can worsen El Niño.

Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, Deputy for Climatology at the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), emphasized that El Niño's strength is influenced by numerous factors, not a single cause. The combination of these climate anomalies suggests that the current weak El Niño could intensify significantly, potentially reaching "Super El Niño" levels. Researchers have also observed sea surface temperature anomalies in three separate zones, the western Pacific near Indonesia, the eastern Pacific near Central America, and the southeastern Pacific near South America, forming a "warm ring" that is unusually extensive, a pattern not seen with this intensity in the last 40 years.

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Many factors are involved.