Black Sea Defense Pact: How We Lose the War If We Don't Produce Together

Ankara, Turkey, buzzed with intense activity during a major security summit, transforming the capital into a global security epicenter. The logistical and security mobilization was total, with visible police cordons, official motorcades, and a high density of dignitaries, military leaders, and strategists. This demonstration of rigorous organization underscored the high stakes of the discussions.

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I wish to express my thanks to the Aspen Institute Romania and the Aspen Institute Kyiv for the opportunity to participate in this useful debate, hosted in Ankara – a strategic space, organized on the sidelines of the NATO Summit 2026, which took place at a defining moment for our collective security and regional defense architecture.

Delegates from NATO member states and allied nations grappled with a critical challenge: how to convert a fragmented defense industrial landscape into an integrated regional shield for the Black Sea theater. This region, encompassing Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey, Ukraine, and Georgia, lies on the front lines of NATO's most active threat environment.

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The Black Sea region presents a paradox that defines the contemporary security architecture of NATO's Eastern Flank. The five littoral states – Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey, Ukraine, and Georgia – are on the front line of the Alliance's most active threat environment, hosting the critical infrastructure on which Europe's energy, digital, and commercial security depend.

The Black Sea states host crucial infrastructure for Europe's energy, digital, and commercial security. While Georgia and Moldova contribute to regional maritime monitoring and early warning networks, their institutional alignment with Western structures varies. Despite their strategic importance, these states are described as "industrially underutilized," with defense industrial bases underfunded and poorly integrated into the broader transatlantic defense ecosystem. Turkey stands out as a significant exception, having developed its defense industry considerably over the past two decades.

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However, these same states remain, in the terms of a recent Aspen Institute analysis, 'industrially underutilized.' Their defense industrial bases remain underfunded, insufficiently reformed, and insufficiently integrated into the broader transatlantic defense ecosystem.