BMKG and BRIN: 2026 El Nino Has Grown Strong

Indonesia is bracing for a potentially powerful El Nino in 2026, with meteorological agencies issuing strong warnings. The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has forecast the phenomenon to reach a "very strong" intensity, based on sea surface temperature increases in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean exceeding 1.56 degrees Celsius above normal.

Further analysis from researchers at the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) suggests the situation could be even more severe than initially feared. Erma Yulihastin, a researcher at BRIN's Climate and Atmosphere Research Center, stated that the current sea surface temperature anomaly in the Pacific region has reached +1.74 degrees Celsius, surpassing the strong El Nino event of 2023. She also noted a significant warming of subsurface ocean temperatures, which will eventually be released into the atmosphere, potentially leading to a super El Nino of +2.0 degrees Celsius or higher by October-December.

The implications for Indonesia are significant, with BMKG placing several areas in Yogyakarta, Central Java, and East Java on high alert for meteorological drought. Yulihastin specifically highlighted Kalimantan as the island most vulnerable to drought impacts, urging preventative measures against forest and land fires during the peak season. The potential for a prolonged El Nino, lasting into the following year, adds to the concern for the archipelago's climate stability.