BN poised to win over 60% of Johor seats, predicts ex-MP

Barisan Nasional (BN) has a strong chance of winning at least 53 of Johor's state seats in the upcoming election, a prediction that has risen to over 60% after a week of campaigning, according to former Bangi MP Dr. Ong Kian Ming.

Ong's projections, based on three different scenarios derived from the last general election results, suggest Pakatan Harapan (PH) will only win three remaining seats, while Perikatan Nasional (PN) is unlikely to secure any victories. He noted that PH's support from Chinese and Indian voters is expected to decrease significantly, as their backing in the previous election had reached its peak.

Several factors contribute to BN's potential dominance, Ong explained. PH lacks a cohesive campaign narrative and has focused on attacking the popular Johor Menteri Besar, Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi. Furthermore, PH has yet to name its chief ministerial candidate, and many of its top leaders are not contesting any state seats, creating a leadership vacuum. The party also delayed announcing its manifesto, unlike BN, which released theirs shortly after candidate nominations closed. Ong believes the remaining time is insufficient for PH to effectively introduce its manifesto to candidates and voters.

Ong also pointed to self-inflicted problems within PH's campaign. He cited a statement by Housing and Local Government Minister Nga Kor Ming, who suggested he would resign from the cabinet if BN won big in Johor and Najib Razak was released. This statement, coupled with a social media post by Marina Ibrahim alleging a senior DAP leader privately asked her to prepare for Najib's potential release while publicly opposing it, has created internal conflict. Ong anticipates BN's strong performance in Johor, potentially including MCA winning more seats than DAP, could have a positive spillover effect in the Negeri Sembilan state election and possibly accelerate the dissolution of Parliament by year-end.