Bogusław Chrabota: Taiwan – Uncertainty and Semiconductors

The relationship between the United States and Taiwan, particularly concerning security guarantees, has become a focal point of geopolitical tension, as highlighted by the recent interactions between former President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. While the summit in Beijing did not yield a breakthrough in the broader US-China confrontation or a "grand deal," it underscored a significant shift in American priorities, with business interests taking precedence for the US and Taiwan remaining central for China.

“

Trump avoids answering regarding the defense of the island, while his predecessor, 'Sleepy Joe,' was unequivocal on this matter. He assured strategic protection and unquestioned cooperation.

What was once a certainty – American security assurances for Taiwan – is now perceived as a "red line" in the eyes of China's leader. Trump's ambiguous stance on defending the island, contrasting sharply with his predecessor Joe Biden's clear commitment to strategic protection and cooperation, has introduced a profound sense of uncertainty. Trump's hesitant responses regarding US involvement in a potential conflict on the island, located 9,500 kilometers away, and his silence on a $11 billion arms deal approved by Congress, have left many in Taipei deeply unsettled.

This ambiguity has led to a perception among millions of Taiwanese that Trump is no longer a reliable partner. While he has not made any direct threats, his evasiveness has created widespread unease. Meanwhile, Xi Jinping is leveraging this situation, invoking the "Thucydides Trap" to suggest that while major powers are not destined for war, Taiwan presents a potential exception. This serves as a stark warning, especially given the current ruling party's aspirations for independence, a move that would likely be considered a "casus belli" by Beijing.

“

Trump speaks with reservation, stating that the US has no interest in engaging in a war on an island 9,500 kilometers away and leaves unanswered the question of whether Americans will fulfill the $11 billion arms contract for Taiwan, which – incidentally – has already been approved by Congress.

The political landscape within Taiwan is also complex. The opposition Kuomintang party, descendants of Chiang Kai-shek, distances itself from the independence movement. Ironically, it was the Kuomintang's flight from mainland China that led to the current political status quo, which Beijing views as a "rebellious province." Today, the party advocates for "one China" and maintains ties with Beijing. Some experts suggest that the period leading up to Taiwan's presidential elections in January 2028 might see relative calm, especially if a Kuomintang candidate wins, potentially increasing the likelihood of a peaceful reunification path, which Xi Jinping would prefer to avoid.

“

In Taipei, this is understood unequivocally: Trump, by avoiding a direct answer, has ceased to be a reliable partner.

Beijing's preference for avoiding military confrontation stems from several factors. Taiwan is heavily armed and capable of a strong defense. A military operation would also damage China's image as it seeks global dominance, as Chinese citizens do not wish to be perceived like Putin. Most importantly, Beijing's interest lies not just in the island itself but in its technological prowess, particularly in the semiconductor industry. Taiwan, largely through TSMC, holds a near-monopoly in producing the latest generation of processors, making it a critical player in the global tech supply chain.

“

Xi reminds of the 'Thucydides Trap,' assuring that great powers are not doomed to war, unless... the issue of Taiwan arises.