Bolivia May Need to Import 7-10 Million Cubic Meters of Gas Daily by 2029

Bolivia faces a projected need to import between 7 and 10 million cubic meters per day of natural gas from 2029 onwards, according to geologist and hydrocarbon expert Gustavo Navarro. This forecast stems from a steady decline in the country's gas production and a significant lack of new discoveries in recent years to replenish dwindling reserves.

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All are aware and several specialists said it a decade ago that the country will be forced to import natural gas. It is easy to realize and knowing the data we have around 2 TCF (Trillions of cubic feet) and with minimal export to Brazil, this will be finished in a couple of years. So, the country will need to import at least between 7 and 10 MMm3/d.

Navarro stated that the situation is well-understood, with specialists having predicted this scenario for a decade. "The country will be forced to import natural gas," he asserted, noting that with approximately 2 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of reserves and minimal exports to Brazil, Bolivia's supply could be depleted within a few years.

The expert recommends that YPFB, Bolivia's state-owned oil company, begin negotiations with Argentine authorities as early as 2029. Argentina, with its vast Vaca Muerta megayacimiento, is the most logical source, with gas transport possible via the Gasoducto del Norte, which connects to Bolivia's Gasoducto de Integración Juana Azurduy (GIJA) and Gasoducto Yacuiba - Río Grande (GASYRG).

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Our country facilitates the transport of natural gas from Argentina to the Brazil market through these pipelines; from the volume of gas we send, we can request an additional amount to satisfy the needs of natural gas, especially to cover domestic and industrial use.

Navarro estimates the import cost could be around $8 per million British thermal units (BTU), a price he considers high. He urged the Bolivian government to assess its economic capacity to fund these imports and avoid national market shortages. The expert emphasized the necessity of securing gas supplies due to falling production, warning of potential problems if imports are not arranged. He also noted that replenishing reserves will take time, despite efforts to enact a new hydrocarbons law that has yet to be presented to the Legislative Assembly.

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It is extremely necessary to have gas due to the fall in production because if there is none, it will cause problems. Bolivia has no other option than to import and replenishing reserves will take time. It will not be immediate, even though they are preparing a new Hydrocarbons Law that is unknown, they haven't even presented it to the Legislative Assembly to attract investments in the sector.