Bolsonaro narrows gap with Lula in potential election runoff, poll shows

Flávio Bolsonaro has reduced the vote gap with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a hypothetical second-round presidential election, a new poll indicates. The survey shows Bolsonaro garnering 40% of the vote compared to Lula's 43%, a slight improvement for Bolsonaro from early August when he registered 39% against Lula's 44%.

This narrowing of the difference comes as the election campaign officially begins. In July, the same polling firm showed Lula with a more significant lead of 45% to Bolsonaro's 37% in a potential runoff. In the first round of the election, Lula leads Bolsonaro 38% to 31%, with radical far-right candidate Renan Santos and conservative former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado each polling at 4%.

Bolsonaro's rejection rate stands at 54%, two points higher than Lula's 52%. His campaign has seen a slight uptick coinciding with reduced media focus on a controversy involving banker Daniel Vorcaro, who is imprisoned for fraud. Vorcaro was allegedly asked by Bolsonaro for a large sum to fund a film about his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Flávio Bolsonaro has also recently reconnected with his stepmother, former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro, after a period of estrangement. He recently confirmed his running mate as Deputy Alfredo Gaspar and presented a government plan focused on combating organized crime, judicial reform, and public spending adjustments. Lula, meanwhile, recently outlined his government program emphasizing sovereignty, reducing social inequality, and fighting organized crime.

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The difference between the two candidates continues to narrow.