BOOK REVIEW: Is democracy Africa’s path to development? Jakkie Cilliers isn’t so sure

Jakkie Cilliers is challenging one of the most familiar assumptions about Africa’s future: that democracy naturally provides the route to development.

In Africa’s Road to Prosperity: 10 Things to Know, the founder of the Institute for Security Studies argues that competitive politics can sometimes damage fragile post-conflict states. In countries such as Somalia and South Sudan, he says, politicians may rally electoral support along ethnic or religious lines, undoing progress made in ending violence.

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and then gradually strengthen democracy

Cilliers instead argues that low-income African countries should first establish stability, control over their territory and strong institutions. Those foundations, he says, can provide a secure platform for economic growth before countries gradually strengthen democracy. The argument has dismayed some opposition leaders seeking to remove authoritarian rulers.

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authoritarian growth models are risky and often unsustainable as they depend heavily on individual leaders rather than durable institutions

The book also questions the value of demographic growth on its own. Cilliers calls demography “the master variable” in development and predicts that Africa’s population will rise from 1.552 billion in 2025 to 2.586 billion in 2050. But the continent’s exceptionally young population also leaves workers supporting a large dependent population.

Africa will gain a demographic dividend only when its median age rises from its current 19.5 years in southern Africa to 25.5 years, or when the working-age population exceeds dependents by about 1.7 to one. Cilliers advocates family planning, greater empowerment for women and better education for girls to reduce birth rates and increase the relative size of the workforce. He also blames ageing political elites and entrenched traditional authorities for resisting radical change. The book acknowledges the dilemma: authoritarian growth can be unsustainable because it depends on individual leaders, while authoritarian rulers may indefinitely postpone a transition to democracy.

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the master variable