Brazil election campaign starts with technical tie between Lula and Bolsonaro's son

Brazil's presidential election campaign officially kicked off Sunday, marked by external interference and deep internal polarization. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro are technically tied, heading towards a likely second-round vote.

Lula, the progressive leader, will launch his re-election bid from his political birthplace in São Bernardo do Campo, where he led a labor movement during the military dictatorship. His campaign aims to highlight economic achievements like 2% average growth, historically low unemployment, and increased per capita income, while also emphasizing national sovereignty against perceived external interference from the United States and Argentina.

Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, will hold his first rally in Rio de Janeiro's Copacabana beach, a family stronghold. This election is shaping up as a contest between Lula's progressivism and the bolsonarism embodied by Flávio, who his father designated as a successor. However, Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility due to a conviction for coup-mongering has fragmented the conservative field.

Several new candidates, including far-right activist Renan Santos, former Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado, and businessman Romeu Zema, are attempting to position themselves as Lula's main adversary. Despite their efforts, none have surpassed 5% in voter intention polls, according to a recent Quaest survey. The poll predicts a second-round runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, with Lula at 43% and Flávio at 40%, a statistical tie within the margin of error. Approximately 4% of voters remain undecided, a crucial bloc that often includes women, middle-class voters, and independents.