Brazil Faces Unfamiliar Underdog Role at World Cup Amidst Shifting Expectations

Brazil finds itself in the unusual position of an underdog heading into the World Cup, a stark contrast to its traditional status as a perennial favorite. Peter Arnholdt, a scout and football writer based in Belo Horizonte, notes that the five-time world champions are currently ranked behind Spain, France, England, Portugal, and Argentina by bookmakers.

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It feels bad down here. Brazilians want to win. They want the world's best national team, and the Ballon d'Or winner should preferably be Brazilian.

"It feels bad down here. Brazilians want to win. They want the world's best national team, and the Ballon d'Or winner should preferably be Brazilian," Arnholdt stated. Since their last triumph in 2002, Brazil has been a favorite or second favorite in five consecutive World Cups, yet each has ended in disappointment. The team exited the 2022 Qatar World Cup in the quarterfinals against Croatia and subsequently underperformed at the 2024 Copa America, only securing fifth place in South American World Cup qualification.

"The results haven't been enough to be among the biggest favorites. And it's been like this for many years. They know this in Brazil, and they also know they are going to the World Cup with a team where not everything is playing 100 percent," Arnholdt explained. "But hope is a kind of release. Most people believe in a quarterfinal, maybe a semifinal. Anything more would be a big surprise, because people also look at teams like Spain and France and can see that, unlike Brazil, they have top players in all positions."

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The results haven't been enough to be among the biggest favorites. And it's been like this for many years. They know this in Brazil, and they also know they are going to the World Cup with a team where not everything is playing 100 percent.

While Brazil has produced Ballon d'Or winners like Ronaldo, Ronaldinho, and Kaka in the past, and Neymar has achieved third-place finishes, the current trend shows a decline in the caliber of players across all positions. "There are still stars on the team, but in some positions, they are just a bit thinly covered. They have some fantastic academies, but they must also admit that there are some types of players they are missing," Arnholdt observed. The defense, in particular, has appeared vulnerable, and the team has generally underperformed.

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There are still stars on the team, but in some positions, they are just a bit thinly covered. They have some fantastic academies, but they must also admit that there are some types of players they are missing.

However, the arrival of Carlo Ancelotti as head coach in 2025 has brought a glimmer of hope. His personality has fostered a more optimistic atmosphere and provided him with some breathing room. "The selection of Brazilian coaches is thin, and when you have to get a foreigner, they are happy to attract a profile like him," Arnholdt said. Ancelotti is reportedly working on building a new culture within the team.

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The selection of Brazilian coaches is thin, and when you have to get a foreigner, they are happy to attract a profile like him.