Brazil’s 2026 election tightens as Lula faces Flávio Bolsonaro and outsider Augusto Cury gains ground

Brazil’s presidential race has moved into a tense phase, with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva only one percentage point ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro in a recent poll. The contest is narrowing as the October election approaches.

A Nexus survey commissioned by BTG Pactual, conducted from July 31 to Aug. 2 among 2,002 people, gave Lula 46% support and Bolsonaro 45%. The poll has a two-point margin of error, making the result a technical tie. Ronaldo Caiado, the former governor of Goiás, had 5%, followed by Renan Santos with 4% and Romeu Zema with 3%.

Lula remained ahead in a possible second round, according to an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll cited by Reuters. It gave the president 47.1% against 42.6% for Bolsonaro. In July, the same comparison stood at 49.9% for Lula and 42.9% for Bolsonaro, indicating a closer race in the latest figures.

A new name has also begun disrupting the established two-way contest. Augusto Cury, a 67-year-old psychiatrist, best-selling author and television personality, moved from near anonymity as a candidate to third place in two polls released Monday. The Nexus poll put him at 11%, up from 2%, while AtlasIntel/Bloomberg recorded 7.8%, compared with 1.6% previously.

Cury is running for the small Avante party and seeks to attract voters dissatisfied with years of polarization. He avoids defining himself as either left-wing or right-wing and uses the slogan “Focused on what matters.” His rise has not yet made him a concrete threat to the leading candidates, but it has introduced a new question into the campaign: whether his support can continue growing or reflects a short-lived boost from social media and television appearances.

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Focused on what matters.