BRIN Researcher Warns 2026 El Niño Could Be Stronger Than 2023

Erma Yulihastin, a researcher at Indonesia's National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), has issued a stark warning regarding the impending 2026 El Niño phenomenon. Citing data from Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Yulihastin stated on July 25, 2026, that "It is clear and proven that El Nino 2026 is stronger than 2023." This projection suggests a significant escalation of the climate pattern.

The climatologist further elaborated that the strength of El Niño this year is continuously growing, leading to extended dry seasons in many parts of Indonesia. Yulihastin speculated that the sea surface temperature anomaly might exceed that of the "super El Niño" events in 1997 and 2015, which saw temperature increases of 2.2 and 2.6 degrees Celsius, respectively. The BOM model, according to Yulihastin, accurately predicted the strong El Niño for July and indicates a potential warming of up to +3.3 degrees Celsius this year.

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It is clear and proven that El Nino 2026 is stronger than 2023.

"Where is the excess heat transferred if not to all parts of the sea, especially to the surface? And if there is a condition of excessive heat on the sea surface, where is the excess heat transferred if not to the atmosphere? This is why the super El Nino is certain to occur and the sea surface temperature will continue to rise progressively," Yulihastin explained. She noted that the anomaly of warming subsurface sea temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is even higher, with figures reaching +9 degrees Celsius, up from +7 degrees Celsius last week. Experts suggest this extreme anomaly could fuel potential storms and contribute to new global temperature records.

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Where is the excess heat transferred if not to all parts of the sea, especially to the surface? And if there is a condition of excessive heat on the sea surface, where is the excess heat transferred if not to the atmosphere? This is why the super El Nino is certain to occur and the sea surface temperature will continue to rise progressively.